The Dr NRL 2012 Anti-Preview, Shadow Dally M and Morley Award

Leaving aside the fact that betting agencies seem to know enough to take a particular game ‘off the market’, but the NRL and clubs concerned can’t say anything … hmm, let’s move on.

Tired of wading through the avalanche of NRL 2013 season previews?

Want to cut right to the chase with a minimum of waffle?

Well, this blog is for you! (even though I’m not promising the latter …)

I tried to get through a couple of lengthy season previews recently. I really tried, but somehow, I’d rather slam my pecker in a car door. That’s much less painful.

First, season previews are just boring, boring, soporifically boring. They’re irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. Nobody gets a real handle on the form guide until 5-10 rounds into the premiership anyway, and injuries are a major factor in determining a team’s progress. Nothing is ever ‘ceteris paribus’ in a high contact sport that is heavily based around a select few playmakers. They do have some value to the NRL-starved tragic, I suppose, though I’m pretty sure nobody picked the Raiders to be 2nd last halfway into the 2012 season, only to embark on a bull run like they were the Dow Jones and be a force in the finals. Now THAT is the ultimate half/full bet!

Second, it takes time to research, which I abhorrrrrr. Well, for some things. There are too many variables that make this particular exercise a waste of time, particularly information that outsiders are not privy to (like what ASADA has found, as an example). As much as I love immersing myself in the game, this is not the way I choose to do it.

Having said that, I’ll delight you with some stats at a later date, which I can assure you will be current, and not something like a head-to-head history dating back to 200 B.C. (depending on data availability, and I’ve already run into one instance where I can’t seem to find data, and that is everybody’s loss …).

So, for now I’ve decided to touch on 5 things that are either of immediate interest or will provide a bit of fun through the season. Knew you’d be pleased.

Hang on a sec while I pop out to the car …

The Minor Premiership Ladder (unadjusted for a possible NRL/ARLC-dictated ‘spoon’)

FonzThere may be a couple of controversial positions here, but that’s life. There have to be bolters and inevitable slippage. I am taking into account a number of things here such as team sizes and weights, the amount of smaller men on a team for oppositions to target, point-scoring ‘thrust’, age (30yrs+ players) etc. Best of all, there’s not a page on each team to explain myself. Happy Days!

2012 Actual 2013 Prediction Change

1

Canterbury Melbourne

1

2

Melbourne Souths

1

3

Souths North Qld

2

4

Manly Roosters

9

5

North   Qld Canterbury

-4

6

Canberra Canberra

0

7

Cronulla Cronulla

0

8

Brisbane Manly

-4

9

Dragons Brisbane

-1

10

Wests   Tigers Newcastle

2

11

Gold   Coast Wests Tigers

-1

12

Newcastle Warriors

2

13

Roosters Gold Coast

-2

14

Warriors Dragons

-5

15

Penrith Parramatta

1

16

Parramatta Penrith

-1

 The Dr’s Round 1 picks:

Roosters vs Souths

Brisbane vs Manly

Parramatta vs Warriors

Canterbury vs North Qld

Penrith vs Canberra

Melbourne vs St George

Cronulla vs Gold Coast – TBC I suppose …

Newcastle vs Wests Tigers

Game of the Week

There can be only one for this week – Roosters vs Rabbitohs, the season opener.

This game is mouth watering. It is tantalizing. It is so full of promise because these two teams are so evenly matched. They produced the best 2 games of the season last year, and it’s difficult to imagine this will be any different.

SOnny Bill Bouris, Cordner and Guerra strike a fearsome pose

SOnny Bill Bouris, Cordner and Guerra strike a fearsome pose

The Roosters had some trouble scoring points at times last season, and they lacked the ability to score repeatable tries. That is, the type of tries that they can rely on scoring on a weekly basis, which are not ‘Hail Mary bombs’, but are borne of playing the game at pace, running the right angles with the timing of Jason Alexander, not Charlie Sheen, and through building consistent pressure. This year they have a new halves pairing that should be more creative (memo Mitchell: ball out in front, not high and behind!), a back row that looks like Brad Clyde clones and includes Sonny Bill Bouris, the best dressed footballing wizard in the competition and a Clovelly Hotel favourite. They also possess backs that are either 7ft tall or more elusive than a Higgs boson.  Top 8 should be the least of their objectives this year.

Courtesy SMH

The G-Man in full flight: Courtey SMH

Souths are the Apollo Creed of the NRL. They can dance and jab with the left while waving the right in hypnotising circles, and have defied the laws of science by proving a high GI level can be a good thing. They have the flair, size and speed to blow anyone away, including last year’s Grand Finalists. The fact that they didn’t do this regularly in 2012 is hopefully a relic of the past, and is one of their weaknesses. The other, and it’s really part of the same problem, is relaxing in defence when ahead on the scoreboard, and allowing points to flow countertrend. I think the addition of T’eo for Taylor is a clear winner for them. It maintains ferocity and power, while tightening up the defensive line. As long as they remove themselves from their list of opponents, they’re going to be awfully hard to beat for the title. That said, Roosters by 4 after scoring in the 80th minute having foiled a 100m effort from the Bunnies at the Randwick end, regathering the ball and scoring their own meat pie at the Paddo end. All in one sweeping movement, of course. How else can they upstage last year’s matches?!

Dr NRL points (Shadow Dally M) … Dally N?

Each week I will run a renegade breakaway Dally M points tally, complete with the 3-2-1 scoring system and the cut-off after Round 16 (I think that’s the round). And no, News Limited has nothing to do with it 😉

This promises to be a lot of fun, if only for me! The most interesting aspect of it will be to see how it compares to the official Dally M (which is another way of saying I’ll be interested how wrong they are).

See if you agree with the weekly updates.

The Adrian Morley Award

MozAs an exciting new innovation, and a supplement to the Dr NRL Shadow Dally M, the Dr will pay homage to outstanding acts of bravery, courage and sheer toughness on a weekly basis.

Rugby league is the toughest game there is, and there are none tougher or more intimidating than the big man.

The leaderboard for the Adrian Morley award will be represented by the best of the best. Whether it is dominating and/or intimidating the opposition, or playing manfully until the final whistle in a losing side, this is one award any leaguie will be proud to be associated with.

Once again, see what you think.

P.S. Toughest … not dumbest. Returning to the field after a serious head knock will not be considered.

Yeah baby.

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4 thoughts on “The Dr NRL 2012 Anti-Preview, Shadow Dally M and Morley Award

  1. Love the awards. I was thinking the Morley scale is pretty neat. Assuming Morley is the toughest (tougher than Gavin Miller?) he would rank 1.0 on the scale. Then players fit in the scale based on performances. So you can either have it as a max, Paul Gallen one week plays a 0.8 Moz and he can only get tougher in subsequent games, or you can average out over the season.

    It will be interesting to see if Roosters v Souths lives up to the hype. But of interest will be Sharks (will ASADA knobble the knobblers), Tigers (gut wrenching times for them and lets see how strong the culture is) and a Barbaless Bulldogs.

  2. the brooks101,

    I believe I gave Gallen an 8/10 score in a previous blog, which I think is about the highest anybody can get. I could be proven wrong in the fullness of time.

    As for Eric Asada, I didn’t like him in Chips either. His highway patrol uniform was far too tight, and now he’s just being a nuisance.

    Yours in rugby league,

    Dr NRL

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