Breaking down NRL scoring patterns – where does your team score, or fade?

Right, I promised you punks a short blog breaking each team’s scoring patterns into 20-minute segments, and what better way to do it than to squeeze it in between dinner and the kick-off of Friday Night Football.

ZoolanderAs always with someone as full of it as the Dr, there will be a quick digression prior to the content I promised. The reason is that it is partly a follow-on from yesterday’s analysis, and partly because it has to do with tonight’s game, which I shall call the Zoolander Cup come to think of it. Both sides have lost their regular left sides as Origin takes its toll and muddies the tipping waters. The Roosters are more affected I think – the loss of Cordner (injury), Jennings and Tupou probably trumps a half and Josh Morris. Still, both teams might have as much trouble going left as poor young Derek himself, meaning the odds are with a 0-12 result (not sure which way, though).

But recall the Net metres Difference explained yesterday. Large differentials usually dictate the result of the game, and while the Roosters have made a habit of winning with a lower percentage of ball and Metres, it was mostly last year. Here is the average over the first 10 rounds.

Average Metres per Match to Rd 10

Clearly, even with an Origin-weakened team, the Bulldogs, with an almost imtact forward pack, will be hard to beat. Based on 2014 performances, the averages suggest they will accumulate 200 metres more than the Roosters. The Roosters have one the single match this season from this position, while the Bulldogs have not lost one.

Add to this their ability to Offloads, whivh gives them even more of an advantage than they already enjoy in terms of Sets (37 to 34) and Completions (77% to 71%, more or less). Think of it this way: on top of the 29 Sets, on average, the Bulldogs complete, they’re getting an extra tackle in nearly half of them.


Breakin’ the Game Down

it was no surprise to the Dr (nor to anyone eles, probably) that the Knights couldn’t put the Sea Eagles away last week. Why? Because Manly’s record in the final 20 minutes of a match in terms of net points scored is one of the best, while the Knights’ record is one of the worst. If any team was going to run them down, it was Manly.

Check it out:


There’s an awful lot of predictive information in there, and you can see the Knights’ 2nd half fade-outs in sharp relief. The Raiders aren’t much better, nor are the usual suspects. The Storm have a pretty poor middle-40, the Cowboys do their finest work in the first 60, while the Tigers need to be in front by that time if they are to win. Knock yourself out …

As far as tonight’s game goes, here it is in a neat little table, suggesting a faster start in general by the Roosters, but the Bulldogs methodically taking over from there. You can’t really conclude this in a disrupted match like this … or can you?Roosters v Bulldogs

I might add to this after flicking on the box now, but if you want to see when your team scores points (vis0a0vis the opposition, or are interested in using the information for a flutter, it’s extremely useful!



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